You can never be too prepared

By Cory Paul, executive director, Red Cross Dayton Area Chapter

The importance of being prepared has been renewed in the last several months after the Miami Valley responded to an outbreak of devastating tornadoes.

The most common sentiment I heard was, “I never thought it could happen here.”

We’ve been reminded that “it” can happen anywhere, and it is our duty to become more resilient. It’s been more than 100 years since Edward Deeds, Arthur Morgan, and so many others in the Dayton area identified the region’s flooding vulnerability and addressed it with ingenuity and public support.

We are #DaytonStrong when we prepare ourselves and our families for the emergencies by making a kit, making a plan and being informed. September is National Preparedness Month, and the American Red Cross is urging everyone to take three easy steps to get their households ready for emergencies.

 

Make a kit

Being prepared means being equipped with the proper supplies you may need in the event of an emergency or disaster. Keep your supplies in an easy-to-carry emergency preparedness kit, like a plastic bin, that you can use at home or take with you in case you must evacuate. For information on how to build your emergency kit, visit here.

 


Make a plan

Create your emergency plan in three steps

  • With your family or household members, discuss how to prepare and respond to the types of emergencies that are most likely to happen where you live, learn, work and play.
  • Identify responsibilities for each member of your household and how you will work together as a team.
  • Practice as many elements of your plan as possible.

Check out the details here on how to make your emergency plan.

Be informed

Learn the types of disasters or emergencies that are likely occur in your area. These events can range from those affecting only you—and your family—like a home fire or medical emergency, to those affecting your entire community, like an earthquake or tornado. You can find Red Cross safety information for all kinds of disasters here.

  • Identify how local authorities will notify you during a disaster and how you will get information, whether through local radio, TV or NOAA Weather Radio stations or channels.
  • Know the difference between different weather alerts such as watches and warnings and what actions to take in each.
  • Know what actions to take to protect yourself during disasters that may occur in areas where you travel or have moved recently. For example, if you travel to a place where earthquakes are common and you are not familiar with them, make sure you know what to do to protect yourself should one occur.
  • When a major disaster occurs, your community can change in an instant. Loved ones may be hurt and emergency response is likely to be delayed. Make sure that at least one member of your household is trained in first aid and CPR and knows how to use an automated external defibrillator (AED). This training is useful in many emergency situations.

About the American Red Cross
The American Red Cross shelters, feeds and provides emotional support to victims of disasters; supplies about 40 percent of the nation’s blood; teaches skills that save lives; provides international humanitarian aid; and supports military members and their families. The Red Cross is a not-for-profit organization that depends on volunteers and the generosity of the American public to perform its mission. For more information, please visit 
redcross.org  or visit us on Twitter at @RedCross.

 

It’s national Protect Your Groundwater Day

Today is national Protect Your Groundwater Day!

Did you know…

  • About 2.3 million people rely on groundwater for drinking water in our region.
  • The local Buried Valley Aquifer holds about 1.5 trillion gallons of water.
  • This region uses about 250 million gallons per day for everything from drinking to bathing, and cooking to irrigation.

Most of us don’t think twice about turning on the faucet and expecting good quality water to come flowing out. Let’s make sure it stays that way. There are two ways to protect groundwater.

  • Keep it safe from contamination.
  • Use it wisely and don’t waste it.

Human activities can contaminate groundwater, and this is where every person plays a role in groundwater protection. Here are steps you can take at your home, your office or your business.

  • Use pesticides and fertilizers sparingly, and store them properly because the chemicals can soak into the groundwater or run off your property into rivers, lakes and streams.
  • Take household cleaners, paint and other chemicals to your local drop-off site. Many of these items are too dangerous to place in the trash or pour down the drain.
  • Drop off your unwanted medications; don’t flush it or place in the trash. Check with your county sheriff or local police for drop off sites near you.
  • Be water smart – test your well. If your water comes from a private well, it’s important to have it tested every year for potential problems, including nitrates, bacteria and arsenic.
  • Have your septic system maintained regularly.
  • Properly seal abandoned or unneeded wells.

Protect Your Groundwater Day is an annual observance established to highlight the responsible development, management and use of groundwater.

Regional open space plan can help your community plan for the future

By Sarah Hippensteel Hall, Ph.D., manager of watershed partnerships

Could your land use plan be holding back your community?

It could if you’re not utilizing the regional open space plan to safeguard the aquifer’s groundwater and be prepared for the future.

Planning for changing climate
This region is averaging about 5 more inches of precipitation per year than it did 30 years ago. Stronger storms, heavier rainfalls, and destructive erosion are becoming more common.

Businesses looking to grow or relocate want to be sure polluted water or flooding isn’t an issue.

Communities, now more than ever, need to focus on protecting their water, and mitigating flooding and peak flows.

Well-managed open space programs provide a variety of benefits including protecting water and groundwater and preserving functioning floodplains.

A tool you can use – Regional Open Space Plan
According to a recent MVRPC report, the urbanized area has steadily marched outward from the core city of Dayton, consuming farmland and enclosing streams. The additional roads, parking lots, buildings, and transportation and utility infrastructure—even as the regional population holds steady—strains community resources.

To help your community plan for future development, the MVRPC Open Space Plan identifies which specific parts of the region contain critical open spaces that should be protected. Like development, open space conservation can be either planned or haphazard.

Well-managed open space programs protect water and groundwater, preserve functioning floodplains, provide recreation, keep prime farmland, increase greenspace connections, and support wildlife.

Open space is valued for natural services such as groundwater recharge, clean water, wildlife habitat, and the air purifying impacts of forests.

MVRPC’s Open Space Plan refers to several tools communities can use to protect open spaces and preserve farmland.


Tools to help

The Open Space Plan refers to several tools communities can use to protect open spaces and preserve farmland.

  • Farmland preservation
  • Conservation easements
  • Park development and management
  • Conservation design
  • Green stormwater infrastructure

The report/plan can help Miami Valley jurisdictions manage development from an open space perspective.

How MCD can help
MCD staff can guide your community through a local roundtable using a consensus process, bringing together local leaders from government, development, and natural resources.

Together, we’ll create development policies that balance water protection and economic development for your community.

The local roundtable will:

  • Identify existing development rules.
  • Compare them to the principles of better site design.
  • Determine if changes can or should be made to current codes and ordinances.
  • Negotiate and reach consensus on what the changes should be.

Let’s get started!
MCD, in partnership with local sponsors, can assist communities during all phases of a better site design process. Call me at 937-223-1278 ext. 3244 and let’s get started!

Giving the Mad River Some Love

By Sarah Hippensteel Hall, Ph.D., manager of watershed partnerships

Sometimes it feels like the Great Miami River gets all of the attention.

But the Mad River, with its scenic vistas, abundant fishing and paddling, and new rock climbing access, offers fun and unique places that can’t be found on other rivers.

If you have paddled on the Mad River from Eastwood MetroPark to downtown Dayton, you know what it is like to float through the forested riverbanks and then transition to urban life with the approaching downtown and RiverScape fountains. And while a rather unique trip, there’s so much more to the Mad River.

Premier outdoor recreation 

Designated as part of Ohio’s only national water trail, the Mad River and its tributaries offers diverse recreation fun.

  • World-class fishing including brown trout
  • 60+ miles of flatwater for beginning and intermediate paddlers
  • 5 whitewater features for the advanced paddler on Buck Creek and the Mad River
  • 2 lakes for powerboating and sailing at CJ Brown Reservoir in Springfield and Eastwood Metropark in Dayton.
  • Rock climbing in the Mad River gorge

Play area along the Mad River at Eastwood MetroPark

The health of the Mad River

So the Mad River offers exceptional river recreation. But what about the health of the river? Is it safe to recreate?

The Mad River is in good condition based on the number and diversity of fish, bugs and habitat. As with virtually every water body in the country, however, there are threats. One of the most common is bacteria.

While bacteria levels often spike in the Mad River and its tributaries from fecal contamination after steady or hard rainfall, the good news is the bacteria tend to die off quickly.

Keep in mind that even if bacteria levels are elevated, the risk of exposure to bacteria is likely to be low unless you swim in or drink the river water. For most people, paddling or rowing is a relatively low-risk activity.

If, however, you have open wounds, skin infections, or have a compromised immune system, consult your physician before taking part in any river recreation, and use caution.

MCD has collected data to develop a forecasting app for parts of the Mad River. When completed, the forecasting app will be available on the Great Miami Riverway website.

MCD and the Mad River

Keeping rivers healthy is a big part of MCD’s water stewardship efforts. We collaborate with schools, communities and local groups to protect the river:

  • Bringing Trout Unlimited’s Trout in the Classroom program into local schools so students learn about the importance of clean rivers, and raise and release trout.
  • Assisting the City of Springfield in updating development policies to encourage green infrastructure, and installing rain gardens.
  • Tracking nutrient, bacteria, and other pollutant levels in the Mad River.
  • Sponsoring trash cleanups on the river.
  • Educating homeowners on proper maintenance of home sewage treatment systems.

Fishing on the Mad River

Stay Safe

And anytime we talk about river adventures, we need to talk about river safety. A few small steps can ensure your next experience on the Mad River—or any river for that matter—is a fun and safe one.

  • Do not enter the water when river levels are higher or water is moving faster. Most people underestimate the power of water.
  • Always wear a life jacket while paddling.
  • To minimize your exposure to bacteria in the Mad River, enjoy it during days of dry weather.

Use our Mad River water trail map to learn more about staying safe on the river.

Your water wise actions keep the Mad River healthy.

Fish and bugs love low dam modification and removal

By Mike Ekberg, manager of water resources monitoring and analysis

What if I told you the Great Miami River in Dayton has some of the healthiest populations of fish and macroinvertebrates (stream bugs) and provides some of the best aquatic habitat in Ohio? You probably wouldn’t believe me. After all, urban rivers aren’t often associated with high water quality.

Recent studies commissioned by MCD indicate that the number and diversity of bugs and fish living in a 5-mile stretch of the Great Miami River in downtown Dayton exceed expectations for this section of the river.

We wanted to know if the river’s aquatic life would improve after the low dam near Monument Avenue in downtown Dayton was altered for paddling recreation. Before the kayak chutes were created, the low dam slowed the river’s flow under certain conditions. This lowered oxygen levels and made the river an undesirable place for species of bugs and fish that need lots of oxygen and clear water.

Fish sample from Great Miami River

Fish sample collected on the Great Miami River in Dayton

With funding assistance from Five Rivers MetroParks, MCD hired the University of Dayton’s Jeff Kavanaugh, Ph.D., to conduct the studies. Kavanaugh and his student researchers collected data in 2014 and 2015 before the low dam was modified, and again in 2017 and 2018 after the low dam was altered.

The studies took a close look at the diversity and population of the river’s fish and macroinvertebrate communities. Macroinvertebrates are stream bugs that live part of their lives underwater. Scientists track fish and bugs to determine a river or stream’s health because they can be sensitive to changes in habitat conditions and water pollution. If pollution-sensitive species are present in the river, experts believe the river is in good condition.

Key findings from the study include:

  • The fish community is diverse and abundant.
  • The macroinvertebrate community is also diverse and abundant.
  • The habitat conditions of the river channel are very good to excellent.
Dragonfly nymphs

Dragonfly nymphs are an example of a macroinvertebrate found in the Great Miami River.

Modifications to the low dam near Monument Avenue improved river channel habitat. The changes allowed healthier communities of macroinvertebrates to flourish, and the fish that feed upon those communities to return.

The results from the study show this section of the river could meet the state’s highest criteria for water quality.

The study also noted a few other factors that contribute to the health of this stretch of the Great Miami River:

  • The City of Dayton does not have a combined sewer system. This eliminates periodic discharges of raw sewage into the river during rain events.
  • Municipal wastewater treatment, thanks to requirements of the Clean Water Act, has played a major role in the recovery of the Great Miami River.
  • The buried valley aquifer sustains flow in the Great Miami River during droughts. Abundant water flows even during the driest times of the year, typically summer and early fall, thanks to the aquifer.

Dr. Kavanaugh also studied the fish, bugs and habitat conditions in the area surrounding the Tait Station low dam before its removal. He will compare that data with data from studies completed after the dam was completely removed in 2018.

Wear it: Your excuses don’t hold water

By Brenda Gibson, public relations manager

How many different ways can we say it? Wearing a life jacket can save your life. We know, we know. You have all kinds of reasons why you don’t want to wear it. Here are five excuses we’ve heard for not wearing a life jacket and why they don’t hold water.

I have life jackets on board.

That’s like saying, “I have seatbelts in my car.” They don’t do any good unless you wear them. Have you ever tried to put on a seatbelt during an accident? The same goes for trying to put on a life jacket. There’s just not enough time.

I’m a strong swimmer.

That’s great, but are you a smart swimmer? Because a smart swimmer would know that if you fall into the water, your clothes can feel a lot heavier and exhaust even a strong swimmer.

It’s too hot, and life jackets don’t look cool.
Nice try, but the days of the old-fashioned, bulky orange life jacket are long gone. There are many choices of life jackets including trendy colors and patterns and those that can resemble a pair of suspenders or a belt pack. They not only look cooler, they are cooler.

The life jacket gets in the way.

Again, you have plenty of choices to find the one life jacket that will work for you no matter the activity.

Nothing is going to happen to me.

Face it, accidents happen. Boating can be fun, safe and enjoyable with the smallest of efforts. Are you really willing to take the chance of losing your life, and causing pain and suffering for your family and friends just because you wouldn’t “Wear It!” Come on, you’re better than that.

Find the right life jacket for you. And WEAR IT! Then download any or all of the river recreation maps for more information on paddling safety.

Safe Boating Week is May 18-24 2019.

Tweet us a photo of you wearing your life jacket @mcdwater

Tour de Way — A Riverway Giveaway

By Elizabeth Connor, Great Miami Riverway 

Sometimes the best travel plans are right in your own backyard. If you’re looking for new and exciting activities to do and places to visit this year, you won’t have to travel far.

The Great Miami Riverway’s Tour de Way passport program launches on May 4. You can explore the region all year long with more than 100 locations, perfect for the adventurer, the art lover, the aviation enthusiast, the beer connoisseur, and everyone else in between.

Each time you visit one of the locations, you’ll collect points that can make you eligible for exciting prizes like a SmithFly Shoal Tent (world’s first floating tent). The program runs through March 1, 2020, so there’s plenty of time to explore and collect points.

 

Get started
To get started, you simply visit one of the many locations that will be listed on greatmiamiriverway.com starting May 4. Follow the instructions to find the QR code with your smartphone. The first time you scan a QR code, you’ll be prompted to create a Great Miami Riverway account. Every time you visit a new location, you collect points in your account, making you eligible for prizes such as a bicycle, downtown gift cards and more. The more locations you visit, the more chances you have to win.

Each location enters your name into the drawing, so if you visit 50 locations, you have 50 chances to win. This is not a race. We encourage you to spend time in each location and enjoy the community. You have 10 months to complete this, so enjoy it!

Keep checking the Riverway’s social media accounts for pop-up and temporary QR code locations. If you want to win the big prizes, you’ll need those extra points! If you take a photo while exploring and use the hashtag #RiverwayGiveaway, you’ll receive double points for that location. Photos can be posted on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.

The winners will be announced at the 2020 Riverway Summit. You don’t need to be present to win, but you will need to pick up your prizes. They are too large to ship!

A Tour de Way guide to each city—Sidney to Hamilton—will be available on the Great Miami Riverway website.

RiverCon
Tour de Way launches May 4 in Middletown at a new event called RiverCon. Held at the MetroParks of Butler County’s River Center, the event will combine Star Wars and the Great Miami River. There will be a Star Wars costume contest, Jedi yoga, live music, downtown shuttle and amazing food trucks. It’s the perfect place to log your first Tour de Way location. #MayTheRiverBeWithYou

The Great Miami Riverway is 99 miles of river, paved trails, and connected communities from Sidney to Hamilton. MCD is a partner in the Great Miami Riverway.

“Think” theme for Groundwater Awareness Week, March 10-16

By Sarah Hippensteel Hall, Ph.D., manager for watershed partnerships

Many of us never think twice about groundwater—where it comes from, how much there is, or how to protect it. We just turn on the spigot and water flows.

But maybe it’s time to think for a minute about this amazing resource that keeps us all alive, literally.

Think is the theme for this year’s National Groundwater Awareness Week (#GWAW), March 10-16. Groundwater Awareness Week is an annual observance highlighting responsible development, management, and use of groundwater. The Think theme urges each of us to consider ways we can protect this most valuable natural resource.

So Think about not running the water while you brush your teeth. Or Think about getting that leaking faucet fixed. Think about the farmers that rely on groundwater to grow the food you eat. And Think about having your well inspected to protect your drinking water system.

Here are few steps you can take to ensure your family’s health and protect our region’s groundwater:

  • Support better land use planning that will protect water and maximize economic opportunity. MCD can help communities that want to integrate water protection into their land use plans, zoning code, and subdivision regulations.

 

Did you know?

  • Approximately 132 million Americans rely on groundwater for drinking water.
  • Groundwater is used for irrigation, livestock, manufacturing, mining, thermoelectric power, and several additional purposes, making it one of the most widely used and valuable natural resources we have.
  • Americans use 79.6 billion gallons of groundwater each day. Groundwater in the Great Miami River Watershed supplied people with 6 billion gallons of water in 2016.
  • Groundwater is 20 to 30 times larger than all U.S. lakes, streams, and rivers combined.
  • 44 percent of the U.S. population depends on groundwater for its drinking water supply, including 2.3 million people in southwest Ohio.
  • More than 13.2 million households have their own well, representing 34 million people.

As we approach National Groundwater Awareness Week, MCD is proud to have earned the distinction of “Groundwater Protector.” The award is presented to various groups for taking steps to conserve and protect groundwater.

MCD works to protect and improve the quantity and quality of water available to people living and working within the Great Miami River Watershed. Through research, educational programs, funding, and community events, MCD’s work on water stewardship issues provides citizens with the information they need to make safe, sustainable decisions regarding their water. MCD provides insight to elected officials and community leaders, inspiring stewardship at the local, regional, and national levels. Since 1915, the Miami Conservancy District has been committed to the protection, preservation, and promotion of water and water-related causes.

MCD participates in #GWAW to raise awareness of the critical importance of groundwater to healthy communities and a thriving economy.

Please visit bit.ly/MCDstateofthewater for more facts about our groundwater.

The National Ground Water Association encourages everyone to become official “groundwater protectors” by taking steps to conserve and protect the resource. Businesses, individuals, educators, students, federal agencies, cities, associations, and everyone in between can ask to be added to NGWA’s groundwater protector list through its website or on social media. Have an awesome story to tell? Send it to NGWA and they might highlight your efforts.

More than 4 feet of precipitation in 2018!

By Mike Ekberg, manager of water resources monitoring and analysis

One year ago, I wrote a blogpost summarizing the year 2017 as “another wet year.”

Now I’m summarizing water conditions for 2018, and I could pretty much copy and paste what I posted last year. And, with some minor changes, it would ring true. Last year reflects a continuation of the trend in rising precipitation for our region. If it continues, we’ll see more rain, more runoff, and more high-water events in the future.

The chart below shows how the 30-year average annual precipitation for the Great Miami River has changed since 1945. Note the upward trend in precipitation that began sometime around the late 1980s to early 1990s.

Noteworthy Weather
Significant weather events in 2018 included record high precipitation in February, a large high-water event in April, significant showers and thunderstorms in August, the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon in September, a much warmer-than-normal October, and a cold and very wet November.

Precipitation for 2018 was much above average for the Great Miami River Watershed at 50.68 inches. This is 10 inches above the 30-year average annual precipitation of 40.30 inches. The Miami Conservancy District (MCD) observation station in Dayton recorded 48.70 inches of precipitation in 2018, which is the sixth highest since record-keeping began in 1883.

Monthly precipitation was more than 1 inch above average in February, April, August, September, and November. May, July, and October were the dry months, recording more than 1 inch below-average precipitation. February set an all-time record high for the month with an average of 5.35 inches of precipitation for the Great Miami River Watershed.

The chart represents an average of 42 precipitation stations MCD operates.

Three High Water Events in the Top 100
The greater-than-average amounts of precipitation in 2018 led to above-average runoff. Runoff is that portion of precipitation which flows downhill or seeps into aquifers, and enters streams, rivers, lakes or ponds. Runoff in the Great Miami River Watershed ultimately ends up in the Great Miami River. Annual runoff for the Great Miami River was 23.26 inches in 2018, which is 8.69 inches above average. MCD recorded 13 high-water events last year – well above the average of eight. A high-water event is defined by MCD as a time when one or more of the following occurs:

  • Any one dam goes into storage – when the conduits slow the flow of water. This is approximately when the conduits are flowing full.
  • The river at any one of the cities we protect reaches an action stage as defined by MCD’s Emergency Action plan.

The largest high-water event in 2018 took place from April 3-9 and resulted in a total peak storage of 65,050 acre-feet (21.2 billion gallons) of water behind all five MCD dams. This event ranked as the 12th largest high-water event in MCD history. MCD also recorded its 49th and 55th largest events in 2018.

There is evidence that rising global temperatures are increasing the amount of water or humidity in the atmosphere. Satellites have measured a 4-percent rise in water vapor in the air column. The more humid atmosphere seems to be making storms wetter. Many weather stations in the United States are showing increases in extreme precipitation. Our region seems to be showing signs of this trend.

 

 

MCD monitoring winter weather systems whether mild or wild

Like it or not, winter 2018 – 2019 is upon us. What kind of winter can we expect in the Miami Valley this year? Will it be cold and snowy, or mild and dry?

It’s hard to say, according to the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA). The go-to signs that often signal winter weather patterns are slow to give away their secrets this year.

The bottom line: It’s likely we’ll see cycles of mild weather as well as periods when arctic air descends our way as shorter term influences play out.

Whatever winter brings, MCD will monitor upcoming weather systems, preparing for any flood protection response needed in the communities we serve.

Read on to learn more about El Nino, Arctic Oscillation and more influences on our winter weather patterns 

Teleconnections in meteorology refer to large-scale patterns of pressure and temperature in the earth’s atmosphere that impact weather globally. Three teleconnections that influence winter weather in the Miami Valley include the El Niño –Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Arctic Oscillation (AO), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

ENSO exerts a strong influence on the path of winter storm systems as they track across the United States. ENSO cycles tend to operate on timescales of at least several months and have long-lasting influences on global weather patterns. There are three phases to the ENSO cycle: El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña. Each of these phases impacts winter weather across the United States in different ways.

Locally:

  • Strong El Niños tend to result in milder and drier winters in the Miami Valley.
  • Strong La Niña winters tend to be wetter than normal.
  • Neutral conditions tend to result in colder than normal winters.

ENSO impacts winter weather in the Miami Valley by influencing the position of the Jet Stream and the track of storm systems across our region. AO and NAO also influence winters in the Miami Valley and add complexity to seasonal forecasts.

AO refers to changing atmospheric pressure over the arctic region of the globe.

  • Positive AOs tend to keep cold arctic air confined to northern latitudes. Negative AOs often plunge arctic air masses south into the eastern United States – think polar vortex.
  • AO cycles can be forecast only about two weeks ahead, so their use in making seasonal forecasts is somewhat limited.

NAO measures the difference in atmospheric sea level pressure between Iceland in the North Atlantic Ocean and the Azores in the Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Northern Africa. Like the AO, the NAO has a positive and negative phase.

  • Positive NAOs are generally associated with warmer-than -normal temperatures in the eastern United States.
  • Negative NAOs tend to bring colder temperatures to the eastern United States.

Current atmospheric signals
NOAA forecasters think there is a 90-percent chance of El Niño conditions developing in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this year. Even if it does, it’s not expected to be a strong one. Weak El Niños do not exert as much of an influence on local winter weather as strong El Niños. So this year’s ENSO signal isn’t giving a strong signal as to how winter 2018 – 2019 will unfold.

The AO was in a negative phase throughout November allowing arctic air masses to travel south. This favored colder-than-normal temperatures in the Miami Valley, which is exactly what we got. The AO is now in a positive phase, which tends to keep cold air masses bottled up in the arctic. This favors more seasonable temperatures in the Miami Valley for the time being. NOAA is forecasting a continuation of positive AO conditions for the next week or so.

50:50 chances of a mild/cold or wet/dry winter
So what does this all mean?  NOAA published its 2018 – 2019 Winter Outlook for the United States, and the outlook is summarized in the two maps below.

The first map shows the temperature outlook. Much of the western United States is expected to have above-normal temperatures this winter. Southwest Ohio is colored white meaning there is an equal chance of above or below normal temperatures.

The second map shows the precipitation outlook. Above-normal precipitation is expected across much of the southern United States. Pockets of below-normal precipitation are expected across the Dakotas and Montana as well as the Great Lakes region. Once again, southwest Ohio is colored white meaning we have an equal chance of above-normal or below-normal precipitation.

Winter 2018 – 2019 – Anybody’s guess
Based on ENSO, AO and NAO information, it’s likely we’ll see cycles of mild weather as well as periods when arctic air descends our way as shorter term fluctuations in AO and NAO cycles play out. On top of all that is the simple randomness of local weather, making seasonal forecasting difficult at best!